Week Ahead, Second Week of March, 2005

Sonics are in Chicago to repay the Bulls. I think the griping about the officials will get them some assistance from the men in stripped shirts. I think the Sonics win that one at the foul line and three point line. The Sonics will expose the clutching by the Bulls when they go to pick and roll sets. Sonics 101 to 94

The Pistons repay the Sonics on Wednesday. This is the tough one. If they get down or start to drag they really need to play the bench if they have won the night before. If they didn't beat the Bulls then I make the starters pick and roll the entire third quarter. Flip Murray should see a few minutes in both of these games. Daniels' knee is hurting.
Pistons 96 to 91

Orlando is what Steve Francis does, one on one. Friday, I think the Sonics zone them on defense and Rashard Lewis over produces against Steve Francis teams and against Orlando (historically), put the two to together.
Sonics 103 to 95.

Sonics go coast to coast but have Saturday off. Sunday they play Lakers. The Lakers have mid sized guys that can play a mid-court game. The Sonics pull this one down the stretch and make it look like a bigger win than it is. Sonics 103 to 94.

If they go 3-1 the rest of the week that would be great. It would get the magic number down from 11.

What do we know?
Not much but we can speculate.
We know that everywhere Ray Allen and Nate McMillan go the free agent talk is sure to go. The story in The Tacoma News Tribune from Frank The Tank Hughes says that Ray has resigned himself to not having his contract extended before the end of the season. Maybe so, but I think Ray Allen's contract for the coming years will hang on guaranteed money, length of contract and working conditions.
I was amused by reading the NY media talk about getting Allen via sign and trade arrangement. It isn't completely out of the question. The Sonics will be under the salary cap so the requirement of salary matching of traded players having to be within 15%, or even 25% as proposed in the current labor negotiations, is not required. The Knicks could take Ray on at maximum dollars and send back a player the Sonics actually want and not have to take back a bunch of baggage, that's problem number 1. Knicks over value their players to the point of inaction, that's problem number 2. Problem number 3 is that Ray would have to want to go to a team where he isn't the number one option. Marbury is the number one option to the detriment of the Knicks.
I don't live where I work and there's no real point in hyping working in NY even if Ray has a house in Connecticut. He's not going to see his house all that much, not enough to leave money on the table for 5 years. Ray's new baby isn't going to be school age until the end of this next contract so he wouldn't be planting his family one place and playing in another, that's a non-factor. So, he could play any place that provided good working conditions.
So, what do the Sonics have to work with after looking at the Knicks as an example of a trading partner?
The trading partner would have to be able to send back talent and not push baggage.
The trading partner would have to be willing to pay Ray more than the Sonics, total years, guaranteed money.
The trading partner would have to be a place where Ray would actually want to go.
I'll say Ray's chances of returning at 70%. It is worth the risk for the Sonics, they don't have to sign and trade and they don't have to take back salary in a trade.
It would be unfortunate if Ray left for nothing but let's remember that the Sonics were looking to let Gary Payton walk for possibly nothing, instead we had Ray Allen for three more years. We are playing with house money right now as far as the talent exchange is concerned (thanks you George Karl's ego).