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May 16, 2005

How's the crack?

The odds line for most of the games has been around 5 to 6 points favoring the Spurs. That's understandable, they have a better record, they are a good team, most prognosticators pick them to be in the finals.

So, why would the odds line be 10 for the game in San Antonio?

The lines before that had the Spurs by 6.

Is it because Rashard Lewis might be out again?

He was out of last night's game and somehow the Sonics won.

I just don't see either team winning by that much the rest of the way. Both teams play hard every play and the Sonics, unlike the Spurs, know what the other team wants to do. I don't know if I can say that the Sonics will win another game on the Spurs floor but I would be shocked to see them lose by 10 to anybody, anywhere, right now.

Maybe

Maybe they lose game five and after win two against the Spurs and that has been done before. Maybe they need to get a win on the Spurs home floor and that has been done before. Maybe the Spurs have gone up 2-0 and lost a series, like last year, it's been done before.
Maybe the Sonics are just better?
Maybe not, but right now, it is a fair question. There is an argument to be made and that argument is being made by the Sonics to the Spurs in front of anybody watching it.
Maybe it really is all about one game at a time. Maybe the Sonics do not fear them as maybe they did in the first game.
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supersonicsfan
 

May 13, 2005

It's a Learning Machine

It's a learning machine that self replicates the parts in needs. Need a wing defender for 10 minutes? Wilkins. Need a post defender for your fouled out center for a possession with less than a minute to go? Potapenko. Need to occasionally score with something other than a put back or long range jumper? Luke scores a floater in the lane. Need a all around front court effort for an extended period of time to slow down Timmy? Collison. Need Danny Fortson to play basketball without chirping at the refs? Done. Need to compete without fear? Done.

All very good.

Just as a young player is inconsistent I suspect that this young team will be inconsistent until the collective team is more mature. One game isn't enough in the maturation process, but two? Maybe not. If the series ends up tied 2-2 then I think the Spurs turn the fear of repeating last year into wins. Hmmm, this might go 6 games, regardless, it will be worth watching.

What is unique about the playoffs as a learning experience is that what you learn in one game you can apply against the same team a few days later. I do not have a notion one way or another about which team will win the next game yet but I do have a new measuring stick, the fans picked the stick up off the floor when they walked out of Key Arena at the end of last nights game. it had SuperSonic finger prints on one end and silver and black uniform threads on the other, spots of blood, a few hairs. I'm not sure how to explain a one point win as giving the other team a beating but that's what it was last night. Hopefully the fans return on Sunday with the new measuring stick, give it back to the players to use again with even more confidence. I don't know if they will win the game but hopefully they can compete with this new armor. This one game does more for the future than beating the kings and winning the first round series.

What did they learn from this? Hopefully they learned that role players win regular season games by exploiting their proficiency at the skill that has landed them their current role and that in the playoffs proficiency must be proved out to be mastery or you lose. There are two seasons.

--
supersonicsfan

May 12, 2005

Is this it?

Not really, could be just a break in the drive to the finals just maybe not this year. The Spurs look to have an answer for most of the players the Sonics have seen fit to put on the floor, or, who are fit to play. I really do think the Spurs would have a harder time dealing with Radmanovic, not that he's some superstar, but when on the floor with Ray and Rashard it becomes tough to guard. I like Reggie Evans and his rebounding but he is limited on one end of the floor to an equal degree that he is prolific on the other.
I thought the Spurs would win the series in 6 games but with Radmanovic out I think that 6 gets whittled down to 5.

What can be gleaned from this test of the Sonics?
They are missing some veteran leadership, next year some of these guys will be a year closer to veteran status. Sometimes you have to grow your own leaders, this includes coaches.

Rashard Lewis
I had remarked to somebody else at the beginning of the year that this team would be better because they are a year more developed. I thought, counter to David Locke, that Rashard Lewis could still make another step. I think he has one more in him because that guy that came back from the All-Star break was that next step guy. Unfortunately four days of mid season preparation doesn't make it a lasting change. Getting booted from the second round of the playoffs and a summer to prepare just might make his state of mind productive over a longer stretch of games

Ray Allen
It should be no coincidence that Ray Allen is more healthy after not playing in the Olympic Games. Go back the 2000 roster and check out how many of those guys ended up missing a significant amount of games that season due to things other than kidney failure and alcoholism.


I think Ray makes it back to the Sonics roster next year.

Antonio Daniels
He will get paid more to play on another team and possibly start again. There are positives and negatives to his leaving. His assist to turnover ratio is impressive, until you see the passes he doesn't throw. His shooting is good, until you see that he dibbled and shot and didn't really run much of a play. His floor spacing is good on both ends of the floor, he's a pretty good team defender, unfortunately some of the rest of the team isn't (I'll get to them in a minute).
His on the ball defense is good in comparison to the rest of the team that isn't so good. I wouldn't mind keeping him but he'll get some deal that makes him leave Seattle. If the money is right I'd replace Daniels with Earl Watson if he would consider coming back.

Luke Ridnour
He's gotten better from last year to this. I expect him to make that 3rd year leap to be more consistent. If you want the ball a lot when you play you want to play with a guy that wants to pass it. How many guards repel free agents because they are shoot first? I think Luke has long term skills and would be a long term attraction to future free agents. His defense has improved some and I expect it to be a little better in the future, but he's not locking any body down. Still his positives will out pace his negatives and that gap will increase every year for the next 4 years. If you think he could be the next Steve Nash then consider his stamina. That is where Nash, AI, and many other smaller guards have advanced games. He has been wearing down this year.

Vlad Radmanovic
I can't see the Sonics letting him advance his skills next year in another uniform but the front court is crowded. Some of that can be resolved when Jerome James leaves and Collison plays a little more center against smaller line ups. Vlad is getting starter minutes, getting some press, is on a winning team, is a restricted free agent. Welcome back Vlad!

Damien Wilkins
Swingman Cometh
I think the Sonics get him in early and get him ready for more next year. I think he's worth keeping for a few years to see how far he can develop. As Ray Allen gets older and his minute are cut back to keep him in line with his production I expect Wilkins to pick up those minutes and step up when there is an injury. He could be a 7th or 8th man in a rotation over the next couple year and possibly more after that. He looks like he improves something from game to game.

Nick Collison
He is a fine all around player and should start next year and every year after that until the end of the decade. He needs to work on a midrange jumper this summer now that he has apparently healed from his surgeries from last year. He is the best front court post defender on the team all of the time, that is, he isn't showing flashes of something and then failing on the next play. He is as good from play to play as any rookie the Sonics have seen on defense in a very long time. We are fortunate to have Jack Sikma to coach him.

Reggie Evans
Where will Reggie go next year? I'll guess that in the end the Sonics trade him for a late 1st round 2006 pick to some team that never sees the lottery and Seattle will get the better of the deal. His minutes get split between Collison and Radmanovic. I think Reggie is good player, has value, but isn't a starter or even a finisher for this team next year. So, what would that make him, an energy guy off the bench?

Jerome James
If he comes back it is because the golden offers didn't roll in for JJ. It would also be on an absurdly short contract. He could act as a bridge between the Robert Swift of now and the Robert Swift of the near future.

Robert Swift
Nobody that knows is saying much but every time I see him on the floor he looks to be playing better and thinking less. I'll guess that he leads the Sonics in blocks per game in two years. I'll also guess that he could play James' minute next year and be more productive in those 14 minutes a game. What the team does for the other 34 minutes (other than playing Collison there some) is the question of the off season.

Vitali Potapenko
Isn't he already in Florida?

Flip Murray
Enigma, Shammond Iverson, call him what you will but with Ray coming back and the fact that Flip isn't a PG... Flips days are numbered. Maybe they could trade him but I don't know what kind of value he has now. It is possible that he comes back on a minimum contract to be traded next year. Hard to say. You look around at some of the teams and think that they could do better with Flip in their back court than the CBA schlubs being rolled out there. Maybe not. Regardless, Flip needs regular PT to be productive and he isn't getting it here, that's the sales job his agent needs to put out there. See ya Flip, back to the east coast.

Danny Fortson
Nate McMillan will do some damage control tonight with Danny. He will be back next year and finish out his contract here. The worst that Danny had to offer wasn't anything near what he's offered to other teams in the past. I think he gets his act together as much as he can while he's here. I think we will come to depend on Luke Ridnour to be a leader in demeanor when it comes to Danny Fortson.

Lastly, thanks coach Cleaves for keeping the team positive. I wish him well on his leaving the team.