What do we have left?

Why the 3 week prognostication? Spring quarter starts today and it is unlikely that I'll have better answers next week for what is likely to happen than I do right now. This is who the Sonics are, 8-5 team down the stretch. (That's 51 wins without the hot start, 56 with). Still, even that would have been a solid record compared to last year. But, I see 56 total.

I'll chip in here my thoughts, both of them, as the playoffs come closer into view. For now, the rest of the season.

13 games. Sonics are 48-21 today.

8 road games, 5 home games

Tue 29 @ Memphis 5:00pm FSN-SEA NBATV

Sonics will drop one of these next two and I think it is this one.

Griz are deep and athletic enough to outlast the Sonics. This is the game the Sonics can point to as missing Radmanovic's shooting.

Griz 103 to 97

Wed 30 @ San Antonio 5:30pm FSN-SEA NBALP

I think the win one for Timmy wears off by this game and the Sonics hit the offensive boards to beat the better machine with put backs and free throws. This could be the second seed deciding game or the second round match up.

Sonics 94-92

Apr Opponent Time* Local TV National TV

Fri 1 Portland 7:30pm FSN-SEA NBALP

Portland has made the mistake of playing to lose and can't win a game when they "feel" like it. The Blazers need to ward off the stink of losing but by the time this game rolls around the free agents on Portland will be auditioning more than they already are (if that's possible).

Shoot another one Damon! There is a difference between your team being happy that you are making shots and your team wanting you to shoot the ball even if you are hot. There isn't much mystery why the Sonics with 8 free agents and the Blazers with 7 are experiencing different results. It really is about team.

Sonics 98-95 (score will be closer than the actual game).

Sun 3 @ Golden State 3:00pm FSN-SEA NBATVHighDef

Sonics need to not chase Baron Davis, contest his rhythm but not his shot. This game bothers me.

I'll say pick'em and hope.

Maybe Sonics by 1, 97-96

Tue 5 @ Sacramento 7:00pm FSN-SEA NBALP

This could be the 1st round match up and the Sonics will put it on them this game. Lot's of bumping, lot's of contact. Get enough big people standing around and next thing you know Luke Ridnour is running like a little rabbit (this is a good thing). Kings have enough talent still to win this at home. Kings get this one unless Nate McMillan removes the thorn for Fortson's paw, then everything goes out the window and the Sonics start crushing teams again.

Kings 95-92

Fri 8 L.A. Lakers 7:30pm FSN-SEA NBALP

Sonics win this game? No.

Lakers lose it, tentative vacation plans are solidified for some of the Laker players. I'll guess this looks like a summer league game by half way through the third quarter. Send in the Clowns.

Sonics some number, Lakers some number less the number of 3 pointers missed or free throws missed (which ever is bigger).

Let's say Sonics 98 to 89

Sat 9 @ Denver 6:00pm FSN-SEA NBALP

What ye see Starbuck? A whale? No that's the ego of George Karl.

Nate out coaches George, not because Nate is a better coach, but because Nate isn't on a constant power trip. There's no good reason that the Sonics should win this other than George.

Sonics 99-97

Mon 11 Houston 7:00pm FSN-SEA NBALP

Zoinks! This would be an interesting game if McGrady was completely healthy.

I'll guess that the Sonics try to kick this one away by throwing the ball around the gym. That's just what it looks like lately when they face Houston.

Sonics are still deeper, though I see Sura is getting difficult for many teams to handle. He's no star but he's performing well and is just the kind of guy Van Gundy likes around his stars, a do it all utility man that plays the role that the game demands. But, by now it is clear, Nick Collison is a winner on many levels and many ways for the Sonics. I just see Nick performing well against this line up. Rockets make a mistake and feed the bear, Fortson turns into the Tasmanian Devil. Next thing everybody know, the game is over and the Sonics have won.

Sonics 97-94

Wed 13 Dallas 7:30pm FSN-SEA ESPN

Jason Terry again. Sonics win one and drop one against Dallas. I'm just not sure which one.

Dallas 103-99.

Fri 15 New Orleans 7:30pm FSN-SEA NBALP

This is a get healthy game for the Sonics, sort of a pre-post season game. Starters and rotation guys play hard, run plays, crush the Hornets for 40 minutes and then sit the starters as soon as possible. No point in getting hurt over the Hornets. A Robert Swift sighting?

Sonics 98-91

Sun 17 @ Minnesota 12:30pm -- -- What, no TV?

Twolves choose this game to not be jerks (to each other), why now?

Twolves 95-92

Tue 19 @ Dallas 5:30pm FSN-SEA NBALP

Sonics start to power up for the playoffs by winning this one even though it will not make much difference in the standings

Sonics strong on the road, 99-97

Wed 20 @ Houston

Pan appreciation night. Luke Ridnour runs around Yao Ming yelling "I can fly, I can fly!" Sonics bench plays the role of the lost boys and keep getting lost in Neverland (never take a shot when the play doesn't call for it).

Kevin Calabro eats popcorn and reminisces with Billy McKinney, Craig Ehlo keeps asking Kevin "Why do you keep calling me Billy?"

Houston is given the game in a ceremony commemorating Rashard Lewis' 20th game with tendonitis, Lewis doesn't play like he's hurt.

Rockets 98-93

What's that? 8 and 5 the last 13 games.

56-26

That's a solid season by any measure.

Swingman Cometh

I've been hoping for a month that Wilkins would get in for regular minutes and Radmanovic gets healthy. But I didn't want it to go down like this for Radman. I knew he could shoot but I've been pleased to see that he's a little more like his dad.

On 3/21/05 his +/- was -20.

On 3/24/05 swung to +4.6.

The sporadic playing time prior to the Laker game made his +/- number meaningless since the sample used was statistically insignificant.

He had 16 points total before last nights game.

He has 76 total minute played. Last night he played 28 of those 76 minutes. The game before against the Bucks he played 10 minutes, the game before that he played 15 against the Lakers. Against the Bucks and Lakers he was productive on the defensive end of the floor. Last night he was just as good on the offensive end.

Last night against Portland he played 28 minutes, 7-10 FG, 2-3 3pt FG, 5-6 FT, 2 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk, 0 TO, 3 PF, 21 points.

The Blazers Miles was quieter after Wilkins entered the game as well. Miles was 4-4 before Wilkins came in and was 4-7 the rest of the game. That wasn't all Wilkins but it was more than a coincidence.

What do I think this means?

It means what I hoped it would mean, that is, that the Sonics have a swingman coming off the bench. He is replacing Rashard Lewis for 2 minutes. He's replacing Radmanovic for 1 minute. He's replacing Ray Allen for 1 minute. He's replacing Antonio Daniels for 1 minute. He's replacing Flip Murray for 1 minute.

All those little minutes are being spent covering up for not having a 6-6, 220 lb swingman on the bench. Well, there he is. He's young, he'll make mistakes, but he will give the Sonics more production in those 6 minutes (averaged) than what those other guys are doing trying to cover up that little hole in the line up.

I'm a little less nervous about Daniels and Radmanovic possibly leaving this summer with each passing game Wilkins plays. I won't entertain the thought of Allen leaving and leaving money on the table. I will think that the resigning of Allen will be less risk to the roster while Wilkins is here. As Allen would age Wilkins could take in a little bit more, as is the case in the way the Sonics develop players.

Wilkins has not shown that he's a starter or a wholesale replacement for the players we have, not yet. But, I remember what I saw a few months ago and saw what I've seen over the past 3 games. He can play.

With each passing game Radmanovic is losing leverage.

Maybe I've lost my mind. Look at the game flow from last night and see if you see something else.

Looking ahead, the week beginning 3/21/05

Tuesday, Bucks.
Hopefully there isn't a let down for the Sonics after beating the Lakers in LA. The Sonics should get some more front court help by game time. They will have to get creative to beat the Bucks if Ray Allen can't play.
Sonics 101, Bucks 94
Thursday, Blazers.
They lost to Orlando, Orlando was without Francis and playing the back half of a back to back. Blazers will find a way to get a higher pick even if the Sonics play down to their level, still, Sonics get out on a run and hold a lead. The game is in Portland but the Sonics will feel right at home by getting up for a game against a team unraveling.
Sonics 98, Blazers 90
Friday, Knicks
Knicks are a less talented version of the Lakers (I'm being kind). They are playing better ball over the past month but I think they are overwhelmed by all that the Sonics can throw at them, even if some of those players are in street clothes. This is a physical game on the back half of a back to back. Tough game to call in some ways, none of them ending up with the Knicks winning.
Sonics 96, Knicks 91
Saturday, no game, Ray Allen Kingpin Classic. Will he bowl?
Sunday, Wizards
Likely the toughest game of the week happens after the Sonics get a little more health and Wilkins shows that he can defend the wing well enough to warrant some playing time. In some ways the Wizards remind me of the Sonics. They get up and down the floor as a team pretty well.
Sonics could lose this one, if not this one then the Tuesday game against the Griz (but that's another week).
I'll say the Sonics are healthy enough and suddenly deeper than they realized they were a week prior.
Sonics 103, Wizards 98.
That's 6 in a row since the Detroit loss and injury spree. Look out for the Griz, they'll end this streak (if there is one).

Looking back over the weekend

It was an interesting look at the future over the past two games. Add Radman and swap Fortson for Potapenko and I think you are looking at next years team. There are some benefits to having this happen now. If somebody can't go in the playoffs and Nate is forced to use somebody that hasn't seen the floor all year then he knows how far along they are. Lakers needed that win badly and the Sonics played playoff basketball against them using some guys that might not be on the playoff roster. At one point the Sonics players 7-12 or 13 were whipping the Lakers. The Sonics bench is good enough to beat the current 10th seed.
Lewis was and is dominating. The argument about him being a #1 option on a team has to be put on hold while he puts the team on his back and carries them to victory. He might not be an everyday #1 option, not every day, just most days lately.
Kobe and Butler ran wild and free until Wilkins and Murray were in. If Wilkins keeps defending like that then I'm all for him getting more PT when the regs get back to action or some regular action next year. I could see splitting Daniel's playing time next year between Murray and Wilkins with Murray getting the majority of it.
I watched the game on tape.
I'm not sure who decided that AD shot take a last shot in two of the quarters with Murray on the floor. AD does some nice things but he is to Murray what Brent Barry was to Luke. As soon as AD goes next year Murray will excel as the 3rd guard. I think he is as strong as AD, his D has picked up and he is more successful going one on one (BTW, I can't understand (but I know) why AD would take a last shot in a quarter when Murray is on the floor).
Luke had some mismatch problems but he stepped up his D. The picks/blocks on Kobe in the 1st and later against Butler were stellar. Kobe was looking for a foul but by the time there was any contact Luke has stripped the ball out of his hands, good non-call by the refs.
Nick Collison is stretching out his quality of play. He's not great, he's good and smart.

Rest Radmanovic and get him healthy for the playoffs

When the shots fall the individual is satisfied and is more likely to pass the ball having had the ego fed. When the shots don't fall the ball moves less, the effort to get people open reduces since the confidence in the shot falling isn't there (no payoff for the pick setter either). The reaction last year and earlier this year when the shots didn't fall was to pass too much to the point where the ball would end up in the hands of somebody who can't shoot with the clock winding down.

Broken guys are forcing shots or healthy guys that can't shoot are taking shots they shouldn't. What are the possible and impossible solutions?

Sign everybody, nope, too late for that.

Run plays to take different shots that you haven't been taking all year? Not a wholesale solution for a temporary situation.

Get healthy? How's that?

Play a guy who's only proven skill (using the term proven lightly) is that they can shoot the ball. Only play him in limited minutes and only have him perform the part of the plays that he can do (a role).

Why is that? As Nate McMillan has said, he wants guys to have a role and stay in their role even when there is an injury to another position. He doesn't want guys playing out of position, well, playing them in position but out of their role creates the same problem.

Put somebody on the IL and bring Wilkins in. Let him play 5 minutes a game, not much more, maybe even less. He comes in, he plays the role of shooter and then he steps off.

Why him? Murray is a scorer and not a shooter, other players have roles already.

When Ray steps off the floor put in somebody that makes the rest of the players stay in their roles for 5 minutes even if that player doesn't have all of the skills required to replace Ray. It forces the rest of the team to behave, stay in the same role, rebounders rebound, picks setters set picks, passers pass, when Ray steps back on the floor the only real change is that you have a significantly better player in the role of shooter. Until Radmanovic is healthy enough to regain his shooting form I would pass the ball to Wilkins for a few games and live with the results, they can't be much worse then what Radmanovic is doing. Maybe it is but the rest of the team will perform the roles they are used to doing.

I have gone from The Danny Fortson Effect to The Danny Fortson Affected

I've decided after much soul searching and coffee drinking that Danny Fortson is the emotional barometer of this and every team he's ever been on. Good situation and Danny is good, bad situation and Danny is bad. He compounds the teams current manna one way or the other by how he acts when reacting to the team he's on. Want to see what the locker room looks like? Just look at how Danny acts on the floor. Language is the symbol we use to communicate with someone else to communicate what is real. We are affected by and have an effect on others by the language we use when expressing what we are thinking and feeling. I think Danny is acting out not from something within himself but from something within the locker room.

Just my guess.

How about picking up Raja Bell this summer as a backup swingman?

I don't like that guy for all the right reasons. His complaining in the press about players not playing the right way is exactly what I want to see. I do think he takes too many shots but I can live with that if he is willing to come off the bench and defend the wing. He's on a one year deal in Utah paying 800K (according to hoopshype.com).

 

 

Week Ahead, Second Week of March, 2005

Sonics are in Chicago to repay the Bulls. I think the griping about the officials will get them some assistance from the men in stripped shirts. I think the Sonics win that one at the foul line and three point line. The Sonics will expose the clutching by the Bulls when they go to pick and roll sets. Sonics 101 to 94

The Pistons repay the Sonics on Wednesday. This is the tough one. If they get down or start to drag they really need to play the bench if they have won the night before. If they didn't beat the Bulls then I make the starters pick and roll the entire third quarter. Flip Murray should see a few minutes in both of these games. Daniels' knee is hurting.
Pistons 96 to 91

Orlando is what Steve Francis does, one on one. Friday, I think the Sonics zone them on defense and Rashard Lewis over produces against Steve Francis teams and against Orlando (historically), put the two to together.
Sonics 103 to 95.

Sonics go coast to coast but have Saturday off. Sunday they play Lakers. The Lakers have mid sized guys that can play a mid-court game. The Sonics pull this one down the stretch and make it look like a bigger win than it is. Sonics 103 to 94.

If they go 3-1 the rest of the week that would be great. It would get the magic number down from 11.

What do we know?
Not much but we can speculate.
We know that everywhere Ray Allen and Nate McMillan go the free agent talk is sure to go. The story in The Tacoma News Tribune from Frank The Tank Hughes says that Ray has resigned himself to not having his contract extended before the end of the season. Maybe so, but I think Ray Allen's contract for the coming years will hang on guaranteed money, length of contract and working conditions.
I was amused by reading the NY media talk about getting Allen via sign and trade arrangement. It isn't completely out of the question. The Sonics will be under the salary cap so the requirement of salary matching of traded players having to be within 15%, or even 25% as proposed in the current labor negotiations, is not required. The Knicks could take Ray on at maximum dollars and send back a player the Sonics actually want and not have to take back a bunch of baggage, that's problem number 1. Knicks over value their players to the point of inaction, that's problem number 2. Problem number 3 is that Ray would have to want to go to a team where he isn't the number one option. Marbury is the number one option to the detriment of the Knicks.
I don't live where I work and there's no real point in hyping working in NY even if Ray has a house in Connecticut. He's not going to see his house all that much, not enough to leave money on the table for 5 years. Ray's new baby isn't going to be school age until the end of this next contract so he wouldn't be planting his family one place and playing in another, that's a non-factor. So, he could play any place that provided good working conditions.
So, what do the Sonics have to work with after looking at the Knicks as an example of a trading partner?
The trading partner would have to be able to send back talent and not push baggage.
The trading partner would have to be willing to pay Ray more than the Sonics, total years, guaranteed money.
The trading partner would have to be a place where Ray would actually want to go.
I'll say Ray's chances of returning at 70%. It is worth the risk for the Sonics, they don't have to sign and trade and they don't have to take back salary in a trade.
It would be unfortunate if Ray left for nothing but let's remember that the Sonics were looking to let Gary Payton walk for possibly nothing, instead we had Ray Allen for three more years. We are playing with house money right now as far as the talent exchange is concerned (thanks you George Karl's ego).

I Predict?

If I really could have predicted anything it would have been that Danny Fortson was not going to play. That threw the game out the window.
Still, Activate Wilkins, sit Radmanovic and Lewis and Ray Allen a little and still have a little shooting from Wilkins to make up for that loss of production from the others. This team is wearing down just in time for the playoffs. They should lengthen the rotation for a few weeks and then tighten it back up two weeks before the playoffs.

As far as what happened with Mr. Fortson. Well, let's see. There was a closed door practice with refs calling the action. Somebody that has foul trouble had an argument with Nate McMillan
"Friday, March 11, 2005
Sonics' emotions boil over at practice
McMillan sends Fortson home early"
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/215538_sonx11.html

Hmmm, when has this happened before?
Wasn't James the target of "tight calls" in the past few years in practice?
Wasn't that playing through the "bad calls" a lesson McMillan has taught before?
I'm willing to guess that is what this is about.

I predict, Sonics vs Bulls

Line is 7 1/2
Under/over (total points) 196
That would be 102 to 94 and 1/2.

Isn't this a hopeful line? The line isn't a predictor of who with win but where 50% of the bets will fall. So, I'll guess that "people" have noticed that the Sonics don't lose three in a row and the hype is on the Sonics side .
The Sonics have been tired and the Bulls on fire. Both teams will look to slow down and defend at some point tonight.
I'll say it is under the 196 and the Sonics win but don't cover the 7 1/2, final score 100 to 93. Sonics win.
I don't condone and do not partake myself, just use the line to show where the money follows the game.
I think having some rest will be good for the Sonics and they will defend a little better. It will be interesting to see how Rashrd Lewis plays tonight. He's been a little quiet and could inflate the scoring. Vlad Radmanovic should rest as much as possible. His wrist injury is showing up in his shot.
Go Sonics!

Just read it

Read the John Hollinger story.
Don't argue, just read it.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2007347

If Evans improved his FT shooting over the sumer and shot 65% or better he would get playing time at the ends of games as well.

~
I added the comments function as of today to this blog.

Tired Sonics

I don't know why I'm writing this but, Houston was forcing a lot of that one on one by zoning up and over playing the passing lanes. The team didn't take what the defense was giving them, that is, an invitation to play one on one. Maybe Nate should have put in Flip and let him go at them for 5 or 10 minutes? This is the third game in a row where the other team is over playing the passing lanes to the wing and mixing in some zone. Other than Luke climbing Mt Mutumbo there wasn't much activity that was around the rim.
If you don't like the Flip idea then how about feeding James in the post and have players cut through. Force them to defend somebody rather than an area.
As a side note, it is interesting that Radman made the high/low pass to Ray curling to the paint for a layup in, I think, the second quarter. It's rare that AD makes that pass. Radmaonovic put it right on Ray's hand and that allowed Ray to switch to his left for the lay in in stride, I was a little impressed. Maybe they should run more high low with Radman at the top of the arch. I think they want to do that with Nick but his shot isn't falling. Giving Reggie the ball there doesn't work since he can't shoot and AD will not risk the pass.

While I'm here I'll throw this out there

I generally hate the big breaks between games but here we are until Friday (Bulls no TV). This couldn't have come at a better time IMO. If Flip can go I give him heavy minutes, maybe give some to Potapenko, maybe even Swifty. I don't mean to say they should give one away, but they should see if they can get a win while resting guys a little more.

For March we have had Indy, Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix and Houston. 5 games in 8 nights, 2 of those were back to back on the road, results 3-2.

Also, if you have players on your bench, play them once in a while. One of the few skills Potapenko has is keeping Ming off the block.

Early guess on the summer

I'll throw out there that if somebody is going to leave they will say anything to save face (unless they an idiot).
Last year I was a bit of a Nate apologist thinking that he must have been told to start James and Radman together. You can see here that they don't play at the same time this year.
http://www.82games.com/0405SEA2.HTM
Looks like a total of 62 minutes.
Here the free agents in order.
Nate sign
Ray sign
AD what's the market? I think he gets over paid to leave.
Radman/Reggie/Flip all RFA, cap holds are small
James, if there aren't many takers then I use him to bridge to Swift, he likely gets a market offer beyond what they Sonics want to pay.
Potanpenko left last November, we just haven't noticed yet.
Sund has kept the fax machine hot for over a year.
That leaves us with
Ray, Rashard, Reggie, Radman, Nick, Swift, Fortson, Ridnour, Flip, Wilkins, a #1 pick, 2 second round picks, enough cap room to sign somebody, makes 14.
That's good. One of the second round picks can go to NDBL.
I think this happens faster than I anticipate.

Collison vs the Motorheads

It has been a few games in a row where he has been put on a post player that has scored and suddenly the scoring stops. Unlike those other games Nicks defending has not drawn as many fouls as you have pointed out. I hope this carries on for him. He works hard and does the right things.That block he had in the second half would have been called a fould in prior games.

box score
http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/boxscore.cgi?date=20050304&game=DETSEA

not impressed?
check the gameflow and look at the 4th quarter.
http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/gameflow.cgi?date=20050304&game=DETSEA

OT: The Emerald Bandwagon, Willie Bloomquist

Last night while sitting in the layzboy I came to the conclusion that there is a green wagon circling Seattle. The wagon isn't Seahawk Green and Blue, it isn't Mariner Blue with Green lettering, nor is it SuperSonic Green and Gold. It's some other green, Emerald green.
Some local sports fans hop on when it's his or her teams season and they ride it around until it becomes clear that the season is over, one way or another. While on board they cheer the local team and attach there emotions to any local tie they can find even though the vast majority of these "players" are following a paycheck exclusively and only roll into town to work, most don't even live in the city during the season. Once in a while you have these "fans" that hold some special attachment to these people that happen to be born in this state even though the player may otherwise stink. Those fans and players deserve each other. This doesn't explain Hargrove and his interest in Bloomquist.

"Bloomquist is a nice player; I really like him," Hargrove said. "He's one of those guys who, the more you see him, the more you like him."

Mo Cheeks Fired

Did coach Cheeks really deserve better teams?
He might be a good person, was a good player, but they probably should have won a few more games, even with the knuckleheads on that team (way to go traderBob).

Rashard Lewis

"Teams are defending us a little different now," Sonics coach Nate McMillan said. "They're trying to take away the perimeter, which is opening some things inside. We've got to look to punish teams for doing that."
(from the Seattle PI)

I think this is a significant point in Rashard's season and possibly career. If he gets more post ups over the next 28 games and dominates like he did yesterday then maybe he becomes the #1 option in the next couple of years. He's 25 and is giving the Pacers more than they could handle today.

Can Wilkins play?

If he can then they should sit Radman and Rashard a little and get them well for the playoffs. They can get a few postups from Collison and Fortson and get some shooting from Flip and Wilkins. But please, no 3 guard line ups for extended time.
Now is the time.