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December 29, 2004

Francisco Garcia, Louisville

Anybody see this guy play?
I've only seen highlights, he's capable of providing them but I haven't seen an actual game yet.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=11859

December 16, 2004

There is gold at the rim

The Suns commit the fewest TO in the west, 13.45 per game and with a -1.22 difference vs. opponents (3rd in the west). The Sonics are close, 4th, at 14.04 per game and with a -1.18 diff vs. opponents (4th in the west and neg numbers are good).
You can "give" 4 team fouls a quarter, per game, 16 total without sending somebody to the line. Suns commit just 19 fouls per game.
The Suns commit just 19 fouls per game while the Sonics commit 25. So, it looks like the fouls are likely on the defensive end for the Sonics.
The Suns have shot 114 FT that the opponent, while the Sonics have shot just 10 more.
The Suns count on getting fouled and going to the line more than the teams they are playing. They shoot .733 from the line, Sonics .792.
So, they don't foul and they go to the line more and they are committing nearly the same TO as the Sonics so they are NOT committing offensive fouls. The Suns are using there fouls efficiently by not sending players to the FT line as often or committing turn overs with them.
What? The Suns foul enough on the defensive end of the floor but send people to the FT line less. On the whole they are not committing fouls while the opposing player is in the act of shooting. The Sonics are a better free throw shooting team. So, what to do?
Drive to the rim. If the Sonics keep the free throw attempts even then the Sonics win. Move your feet and don't reach because they are not rebounding the miss anyway.
Get in the way but don't foul, and
box out, and
run a half court game and coming off screens where the Sonics usually shoot jumpers they should use those screens to turn corners and drive to the basket a little more. There is gold at the rim.

Sonics stats

Suns stats

Western conference game infractions

December 15, 2004

7.5% better than the other leading brand

Sonics covered the line plus 9 more. That's how much better the Sonics are than the Lakers and how much people still don't understand that the Sonics are better than the Lakers.
As a percentage of the total points scored which was 201 (one over the under/over), 15 points is about 7.5% of the total points scored. Big deal you say? The line was 6 points, or 3% of the total points in favor of the Sonics.
Am I going to make a point here? Yes, but not a major one.
The odds are designed to place 50% of the wagers on both sides of the "line". The house makes money in the margins. They guessed that 50% of the people would wager that the Sonics are 3% better than the Lakers. Hmmm, put that way the 6 points sound kind of stupid. The Sonics have been playing only 3% better than the Lakers? Head to head maybe but spread over 22 games of play it is not hard to see the Sonics as being a good team, 18 and 4, and the Lakers, 12 and 9, being more than 3% worse than the Sonics. I don't condone wagering, just using the wagering public as a barometer.

Based on the Laker game I'll say the Suns game is still a toss up and the Nuggs are going to be in trouble when they come to town.


By the way. Rashard Lewis is the Western Conference starting All-star only if you vote for him here.

Go Sonics!
http://www.nba.com/sonics/

December 14, 2004

The Game that was and Week that will be.

Flip Murray and Vitali Potapnko were activated before the last game against Boston. Neither players played but both could have helped. The Sonics went the last 3 minutes of that game without scoring. The Sonics went with a small line up and it didn't work. It played into what little roster strength the Celtics have. Had the scoring been on for the Sonics they might have overpowered the Celtics but the scoring had been lacking for the entire game. I'm not sure why anybody would have expected it to show up with 3 minutes to go in the contest. Next time the scoring is cold I wonder if Coach McMillan will try something else. Maybe go big? Potapenko was activated. Could the Celtics have matched up against a big front court? We'll never know, but placing more cold shooters on the floor at the end of the game didn't produce the desired results.
Games coming up in the next week.
Lakers on 12/14/04
Suns on 12/17/04
Nuggets on 12/22/04
Of those three, the Suns game will be the biggest test. The Lakers and Nuggets will be tough but neither of those teams are posting the best record in the NBA right now. Luckily, all three are home games for the Sonics and should provide the team a chance to prepare more, travel less and none of these are back to back games.
They could win all three. I'll guess that they beat LA, lose to the Suns and the Nuggets game is a toss up right now.
As for the game tonight...
Jerry Buss said in one of the LA papers that he would like to go through one more run before he sells the Lakers. Mr. Buss plays poker and I'll expect that he will only fold only so many hands before he pushes himself away from the table. The window for Kobe in LA is shorter than Kobe's career. I give that about 3 years before the return on his investment diminishes and selling becomes the better business move.
Kobe comes to town tonight. The Lakers will be there too. You pretty much have to be a Sonics, Lakers or Court TV fan to have an interest in the game. The chirping of Kobe about Ray Allen's comments of six weeks ago is hardly worth the static on the page. Kobe's child-like stupidity is nothing new. He reacts to things like he's in junior high school.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/203651_sonx14.html

In the court of public opinion, the one involving money, the line for the game is Sonics by 6. When was the last time the Lakers were dogs to the Sonics?
The total points for the game, under/over is reported at 200 points. That is 103 to 97 in favor of the Sonics. I don't condone wagering but I think it is a good barometer. The points makers want a 50/50 split on wagering, it isn't the actual predictor of the outcome of the game. There are likely people out there that still think the Sonics will fall, there are people out there with Kobe shirts throwing money around with blind trust and still the 50/50 mark for wagering is Sonics by 6.

For you trade watchers out there keep in mind that this week players that were traded for last summer can be included in trades in the aggregate (what), and rookies and other free agents can be traded if they signed 3 months ago. The Supersonics Ibo Kutluay signed late in the Summer and can't be included in any deals until next week, 12/23/04.
Also, as always, the Sonics don't leak rumors so you will likely hear reports from other teams and the one side of a conversation that they might have had and nothing more. Once the Sonics start commenting on one rumor they have to comment on all of them or else reporters will read something into silence once it has been broken.
Also remember that the Sonics coaches and GM are in contract years as well as 8 of the players.
Ray Allen Seattle Unrestricted Free Agent
Mateen Cleaves Seattle Unrestricted Free Agent
Reggie Evans Seattle Restricted Free Agent
Jerome James Seattle Unrestricted Free Agent
Ronald Murray Seattle Restricted Free Agent
Vitaly Potapenko Seattle Unrestricted Free Agent
Vladimir Radmanovic Seattle Restricted Free Agent
Damien Wilkins Seattle Restricted Free Agent

http://www2.realgm.com/src_freeagents.php
The GM and coaches are not going to sacrifice this year, a contract year, in order to marginally improve the team for next year when they might not be here.
Go Sonics!
http://www.nba.com/sonics/

December 13, 2004

When I get around to it, maybe Thursday, maybe sooner

Oh ya, you can't wait around here all day hoping for something to read on the Seattle Super Sonics, so don't. I'll post about once a week, give you my thoughts, observations and critique on my team. This is a test page. Check back within a couple days and I should have this rolling.