Here is my rotation... but first.
Curse of the shaggy red hair!
Robert Swift: I don't know if we will really understand what a major blow to the season an injury to Robert really is.
Robert Swift, NBA.com image.
Big Rob suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on 10/26/06, in a preseason game against some meaningless team. He's done for the year.
What does it mean?
Well my starting rotation of Swift, Wilcox, Lewis, Allen and Ridnour works because there is a shot blocking, rebounding, center playing big and tall behind a back court. The back court isn't very good at stopping anybody but they are not too bad at directing players in to double teams and dead end drives. The dead end is the chest and raised arms of Robert Swift. This really throws the team and the court out of balance.
My guess is that the Sonics will be in a cycle of trying to compensate for having to play smaller by playing a better defending PG more at the expense of the productivity of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. They will be playing swingmen in combinations to limit the lack of short blocking in the front court. How do I know this? Just look at the Sonics when they didn't have a shot blocking center prior to Robert Swift. The 15 glorious minutes Jerome James provided count but the Sonics, and now the Knicks, couldn't count on JJ to be in the game, every game. What I saw in the preseason from Robert was somebody working very hard at being an anchor on defense, at being in the game and influencing the way the other team plays.
There is an outside chance that Mo Sene can provide 5 quick minutes of shot blocking, but you are asking a lot. I expect Johan Petro to figure a few things out and the Sonics to help him figure out. until he does you are going to find a variety of guys playing center. This will have a ripple effect through the line-ups (see above). I don't expect Bob Hill to pull a Nate McMillan and play a different starting line-up every 3 games.
So, here it is, for the first few games.
Sene: He will start as often as the Sonics play a team with an actual center. Portland has two, neither of them stars, but effective. I expect Petro to back him up and start more games by the end of the season.
Wilcox: He's having to learn how to play the game. Between he and Sene we will see the need for Collison and Fortson to come in early and often.
Lewis: This year Rashard shows a better handle on the ball and that doesn't mean he's taking too many guys to the rim, but it does mean that he can get a few dribbles down to add movement to his mid-range short. Covering a guy that is 6-10 that can't dribble too well can be done with a smaller player on the wing. Defending a guy closer to the basket that doesn't dribble too well can be done with a bigger player. But defending a guy that can get a few dribbles down and then shoot that's 6-10 presents some problems for quite a few teams. He could end up in the allstar game. Wilkins will back-up Lewis.
Ray Allen: He's usually the best player on the floor. Here we are going to see, sooner or later (I bet you think I might say Kareem Rush, and you'd be wrong) Mickael Gelabale. Gelabale is more dynamic than Rush, he can put pressure on teams in more ways in the half court. I wouldn't be to shocked to see Gelabale on the floor with Allen in the middle of games against teams that don't have a dominating PG.
Ridnour: He's going to have a hard time adjusting to not knowing if the center behind him will actually be there in position. Luke has to make contact with his man early in the dribble to apply pressure without getting called for shooting fouls. Look at how the Sun's pressure the ball and sometimes foul, but they don't send people to the FT line. The Suns get the and-1, they don't give it, that's how they win. Pressure early Luke. Ridnour likes to pass the ball, Allen and Lewis like to shoot it. What Allen and Lewis think is the important part here, and why he starts. Watson get's a lot of PT backing up Luke and some time next to both Gelabale and Allen.
A combination coming off the bench of Petro and Collison early to spell Sene, followed by Watson, will make for some defensive stops and wide open 3's in transition for Ray Allen and rashard Lewis. Gelabale and or Wilkins comes in for Allen and the focus shifts to Watson. Wilkins (or Gelabale) comes in for Lewis and Watson and Wilkins get to pressure the other team by being physical. Wilkins and Watson should get to the freethrow line a bunch this year.
In the end, I predict the Sonics finsh the year on another up note after a start and winter not nearly as horrible as last season: 43-39, second in the NW Division, 7th seed in the west.
With Robert Swift I think they would have won 48 games, 1st in the NW Division, into the second round.
The leadership of Ray Allen will carry this team to a better record than maybe they should really have without Robert Swift in the line-up.
Go Sonics!
As a side note, Steve Kelley wishes Wally Walker "Good riddance". I tend to agree that it's good that Walker will not be part of the Sonics future. They need a new leader for the new ownership to make a big push for an arena in Bellevue. Now, if only Steve Kelley would resign we would really have something.
