Guess Work: Collison and Ridnour might want to sign

Wednesday, August 30, Percy Allen of the Seattle Times speculated that the signing of Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour to contract extensions "might be extremely difficult."

Allen noted all kinds of things, Chris Wilcox and his conrtact, Ridnour's value compared to Leandro Barbosa, blah, blah, blah. Allen makes a point when observed by how these guys fit into the team. But maybe, just maybe, both of those guys want to become restricted free agents next year. Why?

#1. The Sonics do not offer long deals unless it's cheap.
#2. The Sonics do not overpay.
#3. The Sonics do not break from #1 or #2 unless they are pressed by another team.

Another team can only press the Sonics if a player is a free agent, even a restricted free agent.

It is not out of the question for some other team to offer Ridnour the full MLE next year when you look around at the league and see what is passing for a starting PG in the NBA. Looking at the MLE in terms of money paid out in a contract extension it is overpaying. When it is viewed in the context of Ridour walking and the Sonics with nothing, matching the MLE next summer looks like a more reasonable proposition.

Maybe Ridnour wants to play on a team where he knows he's the starter, whatever, he doesn't have to sign anything until next summer. I think the Sonics look at the possibility of looking for another PG like they were when they were scambling for Earl Watson and just get it done. I don't see the Sonics wanting to go down that road next summer with Ridnour.

The flip side: Collison just isn't in a position right now to not extend his contract and if he can keep the years short then he, and Ridnour, could add a longer term deal on after the rookie and extention are played out.

I don't see either of these guys wanting to sign for cheap and to play through prime years and then hope for a better deal when they are 28 or 29. Trying to find a full MLE deal when you are 29 is pretty tough. It isn't as if Ridnour and Collison are 22 and can play out a three year extension and then have a reasonable chance at a long term contract. They both have to buy short or buy long, but something in the middle is out of the question.

I don't think the Sonics want to look 3 years down the road and see both Wilcox and Collison gone, so, signing Collison to a short deal doesn't help the team.

With Danny Fortson on the slow train out of town this team will not risk losing Collison too. The team will be young and thin as it is. If the money isn't high enough, or the years not long enough, then both Ridnour and Collison might opt to become restricted free gents. It has as much to do with what the players think as any thing else.

In the end I think the Sonics see both Ridnour and Collison as good investments in sound players that will hold their value for more than the next 5 years, so extending both of them for four years beyond next season doesn't have too much risk in those guys losing trade value. It will get done.

I don't agree with Percy Allen, I don't see the resigning of both of them as "slim". Between you and me, when you look closely at what Allen wrote you see that he was just stating his opinion (filler). He didn't offer any meaningful information that you or I couldn't gleen from the internet. My opinion is that he's wrong. I'll also state that he just threw this out there and he doesn't really know. He wasn't reporting, he was speculating.