What about Bob? Contract Option Picked up on Hill

A couple weeks ago I was flipping through the TV channels after a Sonics game and came across the movie What about Bob? It started me thinking What about Bob Hill? Will Bob Hill be around next year? That question was answered today with the announcement from the Seattle Supersonics that they have picked up the option on Bob Hill's contract for next season. I think that's a smart move. Bob Hill has made the effort to develop the young players on the team. He has given them more structure, and a well defined system for the players to work in.

Bob Weiss, the man Hill replaced, ran what he called a "flex" offense. This allowed players to start from positions on the floor and react to what the other team is doing. That's a fine system if you have veteran players that can easily recognize situations on the fly. Unfortunately veteran players are the exception to the Sonics roster. The lack of structure was so frustrating for Robert Swift that he had asked to go play in the NBDL, NBA minor league, just to get some experience. Before young Robert's wish could be granted Bob Weiss was fired, replaced with Hill, and changing Swift's career.

Player development has never, ever, been more important as it is now. The age, years in college, of the player is less than it was 20 years ago. 10 years ago when Kevin Garnett was showing that the high school kids that perform at a higher level are likely wasting some of their time going to college, or at least giving away money. But those few high school players that dared to make the jump to the NBA had the benefit of playing with veterans: on teams that comprised mostly of players that went to college, or played many years of European ball.

The players that were drafted shortly after Garnett, and even to the draft of Rashard Lewis in 1989, had on the job training for inexperienced players. Those players worked with college educated, full-grown men. The necessity to coach, to develop players to the extent is required on such a massive scale, just wasn't the situation 10 years ago.

What the Sonics have today is Robert Swift, 20, on the floor with Rashard Lewis, neither having the benefit of college. One player is learning very little from the other because the other, the veteran, is 26, and according to his coach is playing at 65% of his developed ability. Somebody else, somebody other than the veteran players that were available in the past, has to take up those aspects of development beyond the x's and o's that isn't handed off from player to player.

All of this mental professional development, the monitoring, used to be handled by veteran players. The players used to come out of 4 years of college. Those days are over. The smartest thing the Sonics have done in recent memory is the hiring of Jack Sikma. Coincidentally, he was on many NBA All-Star rosters with Kareem. Sikma is a veteran not so far removed from his years of playing that the player that he can't transfer the implicit knowledge of how to play when explicate instruction sometimes fails.

The Sonics have added another assistant coach, Detlef Schrempf, to mentor every player they have playing power forward. All of the back court players have been to college and likely will only need the leadership of Ray Allen and not a specialized coach. Coach Bob Hill has stepped up to address the Small Forward position; he’s called on Rashard to set an example through his own improvement.

Bottom line on the new Bob Hill era; he's exactly the coach you want for the players you have right now. I wouldn't bother changing him if you do not intend to change the players. The Sonics management apparently feels the same way. The young players need structured plays and development, Hill provides both by the bucket full.

It is more important than ever to have a coaching staff that can develop players.

Risk Adverse Summer?

With the disaster of last summer fading to memory (let it go) I have to wonder if the Sonics would look to have every loose end tied up before the start of next season. Last summer was short sighted: the coach left, 3 players took one year contracts and the roster was missing an able-bodied backup point guard. That mixed bag got them a fired coach, a horrible record, and all 3 players that had 1 year contracts traded by the time February came around.

What are the loose ends?
The coach is signed through next year.

Chris Wilcox is a restricted free agent. The restriction allows the Sonics to match any offer made to Wilcox by another team.

The backup point guard, Earl Watson, is one of the best defenders in the NBA at his position.

Point Guard Luke Ridnour and Power Forward Nick Collison are both eligible for contract their contracts extended this summer.

Every position on the roster has, or will have a player a contract that keeps them here for a little while, except Rashard Lewis. Lewis intends to exercise an option in his contract that allows him to be a free agent in the summer of 2007.

The questions are gravitating toward Rashard Lewis: Will the Sonics keep him, sign him to a new contract, or trade him?

The Sonics would like to keep him, but at what cost? Wilcox, Ridnour and Collison are all due for pay increases. Will there be enough money to go around? There's a risk that he will play next year and just leave.

The Sonics could sign him to a new contract, but is he worth more than the $10 million he will get paid next year? There's a risk that he be over-paid to play the next 4 years.

They could trade him for an unknown entity. Are there too many question marks on the team's roster now?

It's a lot to ponder, and then I remember that last year's second round pick Mickael Gelabale will be making his way over from France. Read his fan mail here (no, I'm not kidding): http://www.euroleague.net/noticia.jsp?temporada=E05&jornada=2&id=1473

Maybe the youth coming from France is enough change, hopefully the Sonics resolve their situation for the long term with Lewis. I'll guess that they will not risk the season next year without the Rashard Lewis question answered.

Chris Wilcox, How Much, How Long?

A couple weeks ago I thought the Chris Wilcox contract offer would be between $30 and $40 million over 4 years, start around $32 million, and it goes up to 40 if he keeps playing well enough to be the Western Conference Player of the Week. His offer could drop down to $30 if he chokes on the opportunity. I see no sign of choking, but a few coughs. A closer look might help zero in on a possible contract offer.

Chris Wilcox doesn't have positive numbers for the team. His current Roland Rating shows his effect on the team is -.09. What he does have is non-negative numbers. Huh? Take a look at the man he replaced, Vladi Radmanovic, who had a Roland Rating of -5.4. To oversimplify, that's a 4.5 point difference per game.

Maybe we are all viewing the team not sinking into a hole every game as a sign of greatness, when it's just a sign of goodness. He isn't going to win a lot of games all by himself. But I think he fills the stat sheet enough to put you in position for a second or first offensive option to win a game for you. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's exactly what I saw against the Suns on . He isn't going to win you any more games than Boris Diaw will for the Suns, but they have an effect on how teams behave. Being able to go "up-top" for easy buckets is breath of fresh air.

Wilcox isn't playing much better defense since coming over from the Clippers. His team defense looks better next to Nick Collison, Robert Swift and Johan Petro, in that order. Looking a little better might have more to do with those other players allowing him to go after the ball than it does his ability as a defender. His on the ball defense is only as good as his foot positioning when he jumps out to face a player. He's either flat-footed or he uses his length to alter shots. There isn't much middle-ground there. His rebounding isn't completely hollow, when he had his 24 rebound game against the Rockets on April 4, the team rebounding was up by 3 or 4. So, there was a net positive result.

Wilcox still isn't boxing out his man when rebounding, but I do think he's gotten better advice (my guess) from the assistant coaches. Rather than box out he's simply beating his man to the ball. I think he's picking up Reggie Evans' rebounding role, only; Wilcox isn't a complete slug on offense like Reggie. If Reggie could have scored like Wilcox then he wouldn't be in Denver right now.

I can see Wilcox is a third offensive option, in a few years. What do those guys make? I think it's close to what the Sonics offered Radmanovic, only, Radmanovic is a Small Forward and Wilcox is a Power Forward, and Power Forwards get paid more. 6 years at $42 million last year for Radmanovic becomes something closer to 5 years $42 million for Wilcox this year. But Wilcox doesn't want a long contract. Lop 10 million off of the end of that deal and it is 4 years at $32 Million. That's the high end of the salary range for him. It could get a little lower if he wants an option to end the contract after 3 years.

This is what it looks like today, to me. The cooling off between the end of the year on Tuesday and free agency on July 1, might hold his salary number down. Couple the passing of time with the restriction the Sonics have and I think he ends up close to Dalembert contract years 1 through 4, 4 year $37 million.
Let's see what a contract looks like per year, 10% raises, starting at $7 Million: $7 million + $7.7 Million + $8.47 million + $9.317 million = $32.478 million

I'm still stunned that last summer Vladi Radmanovic turned down that 6 year, $42 million contract, what a fool.

Know this; you rarely make up the money you leave on the table.